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Groundhog Day

How much wood could a wood chuck chuck if a wood chuck could chuck wood?  None, actually, since they can't chuck wood.  But according to enthusiasts in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania woodchucks, otherwise known as groundhogs, can predict the weather.  Today (February 2) is the 131st Groundhog Day, a day when Punxsutawney Phil peeks out of his burrow to see if he can see his shadow.  If yes, we're in for another six weeks of cold, cold winter.  If not, he predicts we'll get an early Spring.

That's the theory, but the Web site LiveScience.com reported last year that in reality Phil has only been right about 36% of the time.  Yet people have made much of the meteorological rodent's predictions since 1987, when newspaper editor Clymer Freas convinced members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club that it was a good idea.  They schlepped to Gobbler's Knob, where they observed the first official Groundhog Day groundhog see his shadow.  Bad news indeed, but  good predictor of the chilly news to come -- Phil has seen his shadow about 86% of the time since that fateful day.

Freas' idea wasn't entirely original.  February 2, half way between the winter solstice and spring equinox, has long been celebrated in ancient cultures.  The Celts celebrated Imbolc, the first day of Spring, on February 1st or 2nd, and as Christianity spread the celebration became Candlemas, a celebration of Jesus and the Virgin Mary.  the thought was that if Candlemas was a sunny day Christians could look forward to 40 more days of cold weather and snow.  Germans added rodents, claiming that the mark of a sunny Candlemas was that badgers, among other animals, could see their shadows.  When German settlers came to Pennsylvania they brought the tradition with them, designating groundhogs as the chosen weather forecaster.

In modern times a group called the 'Inner Circle' bring Phil's forecasts to the world.  They dress in top hats and reportedly speak to him in Groundhog language.  Or so they claim - who would actually know?  The event has made Punxsutawney a destination for thousands of people who attend special events each February 2.

Groundhogs are marmots, related to species of ground squirrels.  They are the largest squirells, growing to around 30 inches.  They are vegetarians, but prone to overeating in order to store fat for the lean winter months.  Groundhogs live in burrows that they are adept at digging out.  Of course, the purpose of the burrow is to give groundhogs something to crawl out of every Groundhog Day, in order to look for its shadow.

With a 36% accuracy record it may not be the best idea to invest your hopes in Phil's annual predictions.  Then again, that record perfectly qualifies Phil to be a TV weatherman.

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